The 99-Percenters Can All Bite Me
Warning: Rant Mode ON
I'm a little cranky right at the moment. Two separate but related experiences from yesterday have me wanting to smack certain individuals with a trout. Or maybe a swordfish.
Yesterday morning I went to a meeting at my school. There were about 20 of us teachers all masked and socially distanced in a lecture hall that seats 115--the same lecture hall in which I'll be team-teaching ACT Prep in just a couple of weeks, in fact. We had been invited to talk about the latest developments for the coming school year. FYI, I report for inservice meetings two weeks from tomorrow.
Our school district has made the decision to reopen schools with all students attending normal schedules. Since this is Utah, that means classes with 35 or more students in each classroom on average. Parents will also have the option to use district-provided distance learning options if they choose; this may reduce our class sizes (but not our workloads; they're still our students) by as much as 25%, maybe. Let's say 25%. That leaves me with 26-27 students physically present in my room every period, on average.
What are the chances that I can fit even as few (!) as 26 students in my room while maintaining the recommended six feet (~ two meters) of distance between them? Well, if I make some of the students sit in the lab area, I might be able to pull it off. But if I want all of my students to be able to see the board? Not a chance.
The plan (or maybe 12% of a plan; we could get different directions after the Board meets again next week for all I know) also includes mandatory masks or face shields for all staff and students, no excuses, no exceptions. Also included is a small reduction in instruction time so that all students can clean their desks or tables at the end of each period. And instruction about hand-washing and hygiene in general will be prioritized.
I wish I could say I was confident this would keep everyone safe. But my money's not on teenagers having the maturity or the impulse control to put on a mask and leave it on for 74 minutes at a time. There are only so many sinks and hand-sanitizer dispensers. And hygiene? We're dealing with people who, previous experience teaches me, think two shots of Axe body spray constitutes an effective substitute for a shower. So yeah, no, not really.
Now, part of the complication here is that my school has been a three-year high school up to now. But lo and behold, last fall the community council approved a measure to bring the Freshmen up from the junior highs this year. So we're anticipating as many as 2,250 students in a building that has maxed out at around 1,650 before now.
Fantastic.
But you know, just for the sake of giggles, let's assume that parents keep 25% of the students at home. That's only 1800 students on campus. Still more that we're used to, but better. I guess.
Okay, that was one experience. Now to the other.
In response to something I posted on Facebook, one of my argumentative sycophantic know-nothing know-it-all science-denying Trump-worshipping plague-enthusiast demagogue friends decided to drop the whole "COVID-19 has a 99% survival rate" bit on me. Which was hardly a surprise; he's done things like this before. I was no longer willing to put up with his specific variety of bovine scatological material, so I unfriended him. Probably should have done it a year or more ago, but better late, I suppose.
A little harsh, you may be thinking. Maybe you're right. But I invite you to consider this. Instead of saying "99% survival rate"--never mind that a lot of those survivors are likely to carry significant health problems with them for the rest of their lives--let's look at it the other way. This disease has a fatality rate of ~1%. That means it will kill about one person of every one hundred that are infected.
How many friends do you have on Facebook? Maybe 200? Great. That means that you can reasonably expect to lose two of them to this virus. Take a look at your friends list. Which two of them would you not mind not seeing anymore? (At this point, I'll understand if I'm one of them.)
Now let's go back to my school.We're looking at 1800 students as a conservative estimate. What's 1% of 1800? Eighteen. Eighteen dead students, potentially. And while we're here, let's not forget about teachers and staff. Based solely on statistics, we're probably gonna lose one or maybe two of them as well. With my age, health history, and risk factors, there's a better than average chance that it could be me.
Now, this is all assuming a 100% transmission rate. But with an average of at least 26 students in every classroom every period all day long, not to mention crowded hallways, lunchrooms, etc., I don't believe that is an unreasonable assumption.
However, there is hope. The most recent data (not speculation, opinion, or political bullplop) I've seen suggests that universal masking and proper hygiene can reduce the spread of COVID-19 by up to 80%. This is good news!
...to a point. What is 20% of 1800? It's 360. And 1% of that 360 is 3.6. What does that mean? It means that even with these protections, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect one student at my school to die every academic quarter this coming year.
And it’s not just my school. Think about this: one student every academic quarter at every high school in America, potentially.
This is why the "99% survival rate" argument is a load of crap. That 1% is still too much if it can be prevented.
This isn't about statistics. This is about people. People matter. And I'm sorry if the times are making you nervous, but you have no right to risk my life or the lives of my students for the sake of your profits or your 401K.
Hey, I get that people are worried about the economy--especially people who are facing an uphill climb toward re-election right now. And let's be honest about things here: The push to reopen schools isn't based on current health trends or scientific consensus. We have in no way, shape, or form got this virus under control. The push to reopen schools is based on the fact that there's an election in November, pure and simple.
The economy cannot be the be-all and end-all of our decision making process. Economies falter, but they recover. Businesses fail, but new businesses arise to take their place. People lose jobs, but in time they find other jobs. Economies, businesses, and jobs can all be replaced. But lives can't. Lives have to be the priority.
Protecting life and health has to take precedence over any and all other concerns. And if you can't get on board with that, then I don't give the slightest fraction of a damn what you think is more important. You're wrong.
I've probably ruffled some feathers with this, and that's fine. You're not required to believe all the same things that I believe. I can still be friends with people I disagree with. But if you're more concerned and more vocal about promoting a political agenda than you are about preserving life and health, then I'm afraid I can no longer take anything you say seriously, and I have no more time for your chicanery.
Rant Mode: OFF
I'm a little cranky right at the moment. Two separate but related experiences from yesterday have me wanting to smack certain individuals with a trout. Or maybe a swordfish.
Yesterday morning I went to a meeting at my school. There were about 20 of us teachers all masked and socially distanced in a lecture hall that seats 115--the same lecture hall in which I'll be team-teaching ACT Prep in just a couple of weeks, in fact. We had been invited to talk about the latest developments for the coming school year. FYI, I report for inservice meetings two weeks from tomorrow.
Our school district has made the decision to reopen schools with all students attending normal schedules. Since this is Utah, that means classes with 35 or more students in each classroom on average. Parents will also have the option to use district-provided distance learning options if they choose; this may reduce our class sizes (but not our workloads; they're still our students) by as much as 25%, maybe. Let's say 25%. That leaves me with 26-27 students physically present in my room every period, on average.
What are the chances that I can fit even as few (!) as 26 students in my room while maintaining the recommended six feet (~ two meters) of distance between them? Well, if I make some of the students sit in the lab area, I might be able to pull it off. But if I want all of my students to be able to see the board? Not a chance.
The plan (or maybe 12% of a plan; we could get different directions after the Board meets again next week for all I know) also includes mandatory masks or face shields for all staff and students, no excuses, no exceptions. Also included is a small reduction in instruction time so that all students can clean their desks or tables at the end of each period. And instruction about hand-washing and hygiene in general will be prioritized.
I wish I could say I was confident this would keep everyone safe. But my money's not on teenagers having the maturity or the impulse control to put on a mask and leave it on for 74 minutes at a time. There are only so many sinks and hand-sanitizer dispensers. And hygiene? We're dealing with people who, previous experience teaches me, think two shots of Axe body spray constitutes an effective substitute for a shower. So yeah, no, not really.
Now, part of the complication here is that my school has been a three-year high school up to now. But lo and behold, last fall the community council approved a measure to bring the Freshmen up from the junior highs this year. So we're anticipating as many as 2,250 students in a building that has maxed out at around 1,650 before now.
Fantastic.
But you know, just for the sake of giggles, let's assume that parents keep 25% of the students at home. That's only 1800 students on campus. Still more that we're used to, but better. I guess.
Okay, that was one experience. Now to the other.
In response to something I posted on Facebook, one of my argumentative sycophantic know-nothing know-it-all science-denying Trump-worshipping plague-enthusiast demagogue friends decided to drop the whole "COVID-19 has a 99% survival rate" bit on me. Which was hardly a surprise; he's done things like this before. I was no longer willing to put up with his specific variety of bovine scatological material, so I unfriended him. Probably should have done it a year or more ago, but better late, I suppose.
A little harsh, you may be thinking. Maybe you're right. But I invite you to consider this. Instead of saying "99% survival rate"--never mind that a lot of those survivors are likely to carry significant health problems with them for the rest of their lives--let's look at it the other way. This disease has a fatality rate of ~1%. That means it will kill about one person of every one hundred that are infected.
How many friends do you have on Facebook? Maybe 200? Great. That means that you can reasonably expect to lose two of them to this virus. Take a look at your friends list. Which two of them would you not mind not seeing anymore? (At this point, I'll understand if I'm one of them.)
Now let's go back to my school.We're looking at 1800 students as a conservative estimate. What's 1% of 1800? Eighteen. Eighteen dead students, potentially. And while we're here, let's not forget about teachers and staff. Based solely on statistics, we're probably gonna lose one or maybe two of them as well. With my age, health history, and risk factors, there's a better than average chance that it could be me.
Now, this is all assuming a 100% transmission rate. But with an average of at least 26 students in every classroom every period all day long, not to mention crowded hallways, lunchrooms, etc., I don't believe that is an unreasonable assumption.
However, there is hope. The most recent data (not speculation, opinion, or political bullplop) I've seen suggests that universal masking and proper hygiene can reduce the spread of COVID-19 by up to 80%. This is good news!
...to a point. What is 20% of 1800? It's 360. And 1% of that 360 is 3.6. What does that mean? It means that even with these protections, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect one student at my school to die every academic quarter this coming year.
And it’s not just my school. Think about this: one student every academic quarter at every high school in America, potentially.
This is why the "99% survival rate" argument is a load of crap. That 1% is still too much if it can be prevented.
This isn't about statistics. This is about people. People matter. And I'm sorry if the times are making you nervous, but you have no right to risk my life or the lives of my students for the sake of your profits or your 401K.
Hey, I get that people are worried about the economy--especially people who are facing an uphill climb toward re-election right now. And let's be honest about things here: The push to reopen schools isn't based on current health trends or scientific consensus. We have in no way, shape, or form got this virus under control. The push to reopen schools is based on the fact that there's an election in November, pure and simple.
The economy cannot be the be-all and end-all of our decision making process. Economies falter, but they recover. Businesses fail, but new businesses arise to take their place. People lose jobs, but in time they find other jobs. Economies, businesses, and jobs can all be replaced. But lives can't. Lives have to be the priority.
Protecting life and health has to take precedence over any and all other concerns. And if you can't get on board with that, then I don't give the slightest fraction of a damn what you think is more important. You're wrong.
I've probably ruffled some feathers with this, and that's fine. You're not required to believe all the same things that I believe. I can still be friends with people I disagree with. But if you're more concerned and more vocal about promoting a political agenda than you are about preserving life and health, then I'm afraid I can no longer take anything you say seriously, and I have no more time for your chicanery.
Rant Mode: OFF
posted by Michael at
11:41 AM
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3 Comments
